Geopolitical Forecasting
Research Platform
Field Estimate is an open-source tool for calibrated probability estimation on geopolitical and macroeconomic questions. It applies Le (2026) logistic recalibration — derived from 292 million historical trades across 9 domains — to correct for systematic over- and underconfidence in crowd probability estimates.
Analysts work through a five-step structured forecasting workflow: causal factors, reference classes, inside-view adjustments, community consensus comparison, and a structured decision log — producing a calibrated probability estimate with a documented analytical trail.
Calibrated Probability Estimation
Applies domain × time-horizon calibration slopes from Le (2026) — estimated from 292M trades across politics, economics, crypto, and six other domains — to correct systematic biases in crowd probability estimates.
See the methodology →Structured Analytical Framework
A five-step forecasting workflow — causal factors, reference classes, inside-view adjustments, community consensus, and a decision log — adapted from the structured analytic techniques used in professional intelligence analysis.
See a sample analysis →Multilingual OSINT Synthesis
Aggregates open-source intelligence across English, Arabic, Farsi, and Hebrew sources. Claude synthesizes coverage into a structured brief with per-country and per-topic tagging, then matches relevant content to open questions.
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