Field Estimate gives you a structured workspace to research trades — grounded in evidence-based decision science, powered by live market and news data.
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A structured 5-step framework to reason through any contract: map causal factors, find reference classes, compare against market prices, and log your decision.
AI agents scan news, economic data, and market feeds — surfacing what's relevant to your open positions so you can update your priors before the market moves.
Your Forecast Journal records every prediction. As contracts resolve, your Brier score updates. See whether your edge is real or just variance.
A workflow built for serious traders — not a chatbot wrapper.
Our workspace distills decision science into a repeatable process: map causal factors, find your base rate, weigh the inside view, compare against the market price, and log your reasoning.
AI agents scan Reuters, BLS, EIA, Polymarket, Kalshi, and multilingual news sources continuously. When something breaks that's relevant to your open positions, you'll know before the market adjusts.
Your dashboard records every forecast with a timestamp and your reasoning. As contracts resolve, your Brier score updates — so you can see where you're well-calibrated and where you're leaking edge.
Select one of three cached contracts below to explore how Field Estimate structures your research — from thesis through calibration to a final probability estimate.
The Fed faces conflicting signals: services inflation remains sticky above the 2% target while labor market data is softening, with rising initial jobless claims. The base case for a cut before July depends on whether the labor channel dominates — Powell has explicitly flagged dual-mandate risks and noted the committee is "not in a hurry."
You trade non-sports contracts on Polymarket or Kalshi and want better-informed positions. Field Estimate gives you a structured research process and live market data — so your edge comes from rigor, not guesswork.
You want structured forecasting practice with real-world calibration tracking. Use Field Estimate to build a track record, measure your accuracy over time, and improve with every resolved forecast.
LLMs are unreliable when asked to both search and summarize — they'll hallucinate sources, miss what's actually moving markets, and give you the same generic briefing everyone else gets. Field Estimate separates search from synthesis, uses real-time data sources, and applies guardrails at each step to keep outputs grounded in what's actually published.
Wire services like Reuters, plus multilingual news media in English, Arabic, Farsi, and Hebrew. We also pull hard data — BLS, EIA, FRED — so your briefing reflects what's actually happening in the numbers, not just the headlines.
We pull active contracts from Polymarket and Kalshi so you can reason through them directly inside the Research Workspace. Live prices show alongside your estimate at the comparison step, so you can see exactly where you diverge from the market and why.
Your account stays active, but you won't be able to open new Research Workspaces or receive daily briefings. Your existing forecasts and journal stay intact. You can subscribe at any time to restore full access.
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