About
Field Estimate

Field Estimate is a research and forecasting platform for people trading non-sports contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi — and for analysts who want structured forecasting practice with real-world calibration tracking.

The platform combines AI-synthesized daily briefings with a structured five-step research workspace and live prediction market data. The goal: help you move from passively consuming news to building defensible positions.

Every morning by 6 AM ET, you receive an AI-synthesized briefing covering the regions and topics you care about — plus a "Markets to Watch" section matching the day's news to active prediction market contracts.

When something catches your eye, open the Research Workspace and walk through a five-step forecasting process: identify causal factors (with AI suggestions), review historical base rates, adjust for current conditions, compare your estimate against market prices, and log your assumptions.

Your Forecast Journal tracks every prediction you make, pulls in live market prices, and calculates your Brier score over time — so you can see where your judgment is strong and where it needs calibration.

Assumption Alerts monitor your logged assumptions against incoming briefings and notify you when the ground shifts under a forecast.

I'm Zed Tarar, a DC-based foreign policy professional. Staying ahead of geopolitical developments is a core part of the job — and the tools that used to exist for structured, multilingual news synthesis were either too expensive, too slow, or no longer available.

This started as a personal briefing automation tool and evolved into a full forecasting workbench after I started trading on Polymarket. Prediction markets turned out to be a useful forcing function: they require you to commit to a number, which exposes exactly where your reasoning breaks down. Field Estimate is the tool I wished existed.